News · 4 min read

Northeast Cold Blast: First Snow and a Possible Nor'easter

By Emma Clarke · November 10, 2026 · Updated November 11, 2026

After a mild start to November, winter announces itself in the eastern US this week. A storm moving out of the Ohio Valley is followed by a surge of Canadian air, bringing the first snow of the season to the higher ground of the Northeast and a sharp drop in temperature for tens of millions of people.

Photo: first snowfall of the season in Buffalo, New York, Andre Carrotflower, Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0)

Update November 11: nor'easter likely, snow mostly in the mountains

The storm is developing over the Midwest today and is expected to strengthen as it moves east, becoming a nor'easter near the Northeast coast on Friday. The models still disagree on how fast it moves: a faster storm leaves less snow, a slower one could keep snow falling into Saturday. Snow is expected mainly on higher terrain, including the Adirondacks and Catskills in New York, the Poconos in Pennsylvania, and the Green and White Mountains of Vermont and New Hampshire, while the Great Lakes may see lake-effect snow, according to CNN and The Washington Post. Gusty winds and some coastal flooding are possible, but less severe than during the September nor'easter. The new European model run makes snow on the coast even less likely than yesterday: only 2 of its 51 runs bring New York at least 1 cm (0.4 in) of snow. In Burlington, Vermont, the chance went up, to about 1 in 4 runs.

Day by day: what to expect

According to the FOX Forecast Center, the storm develops in stages. On Wednesday, November 11, a low organizes over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, with rain late in the day from Indiana down into the Tennessee Valley. On Thursday it moves toward the Northeast. Because the cold air is still to the north, it mostly brings rain; showers can reach the I-95 corridor, with minor travel delays at most, while the highest ground may see its first snowflakes.

On Friday, November 13, the low tracks toward the coast and tries to strengthen into a nor'easter. Models increasingly agree that it forms, but there is still uncertainty about how close to the coast it tracks and how strong it gets. On Saturday the storm pulls away toward Canada, and colder northwesterly winds bring lingering snow showers from Maine down through the Appalachians, including upstate New York and central Pennsylvania.

Where will it snow?

The best chance of accumulating snow is inland and on higher ground: northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. In the 51 runs of the European ECMWF model of November 11, about 1 in 4 brings at least 1 cm (0.4 in) of snow to Burlington, Vermont, between Wednesday and Sunday, and about 1 in 7 to Albany. The cities sit in valleys, so the mountains around them get more. Along the coast it is mostly a rain event: in New York, Boston and Philadelphia only 2 or 3 runs bring any snow that settles, and in Washington, D.C. none. Any flakes mixing in near I-95 are unlikely to accumulate. How these coastal storms work is explained in what is a nor'easter. For when the first snow usually falls in your city, see our guide to the first snow in US cities.

How cold will it get?

The bigger story is the cold. Behind the storm, nearly 200 million people east of the Mississippi get their coldest temperatures since spring, according to CNN. In the Northeast, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, highs stay in the 40s, with lows in the 30s, and the cold air reaches far south: parts of the Deep South may drop below freezing on Friday and Saturday night. In the European model, about 1 in 4 runs brings frost to Atlanta on Saturday, and about 1 in 3 to Nashville on Friday and Saturday.

High / low: median of the 51 runs of the ECMWF ensemble via Open-Meteo, issued November 11, 2026.

In New York that means a drop of about 15 degrees in three days, to highs in the mid 40s, about 10 degrees below normal for mid-November. With a brisk northwesterly wind, it will feel colder still; our forecast pages show the feels-like temperature.

Why so cold, so early?

The setup is a strong ridge of high pressure over the western US, which pushes the jet stream far south over the East and opens the door for Canadian air. Forecasters also point to an unusually early disruption of the stratospheric polar vortex, which can make cold outbreaks more likely in the following weeks. That is not the typical pattern for an El Niño winter. While the East shivers, the West stays mild: from California to the desert Southwest, temperatures run 10 to 20 degrees above average. Read more in our explainer on the polar vortex and our winter 2026-27 forecast.

Will it last until Thanksgiving?

The FOX Forecast Center expects the cooler pattern to continue through the following weekend, November 21 and 22. Whether it lasts until Thanksgiving on November 26 is still too early to say. We will publish our first real forecast for Thanksgiving Day shortly; until then, see what is normal for the holiday in our Thanksgiving weather 2026 article, and follow your city in the 14-day forecast.

Frequently asked questions

Will it snow in New York this week?
Probably not in a way that settles. The storm brings mostly rain to the coast; only 2 of the 51 runs of the European model give New York any snow that accumulates. Inland and on higher ground the chances are much better.

Where will the first snow fall?
Mainly in the mountains on Friday and Saturday: the Adirondacks and Catskills in New York, the Poconos in Pennsylvania, and the Green and White Mountains in Vermont and New Hampshire, plus lake-effect snow near the Great Lakes.

Is a nor'easter coming?
Most likely, yes. The storm is expected to become a nor'easter near the Northeast coast on Friday. On the coast it brings mainly rain, gusty winds and some coastal flooding, less severe than in September.

How cold will it get this weekend?
For many people east of the Mississippi it will be the coldest weekend since spring. New York tops out in the mid 40s on Saturday, Chicago in the low 40s, and even Atlanta and Nashville may see frost by Saturday.

Check the weather in New York or search another place on the locations page.