Seasons · 6 min read
Will It Snow on Christmas 2026? White Christmas Odds by City
A white Christmas is the weather wish of the year, but in most American cities it is far from guaranteed. We checked how often there was at least an inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning in 10 major US cities over the last 36 years, and what this winter's El Niño could mean for the odds.
Photo: Jim.henderson, Wikimedia Commons (CC0)
- Definition: a white Christmas means at least 1 inch (2.5 cm) of snow on the ground on Christmas morning.
- Best odds: Boston and Chicago had a white Christmas in 11 of the last 36 years, about 1 in 3.
- New York: about 11% in our data; NOAA's official 1991-2020 figure is 13%.
- No chance: San Francisco, Los Angeles, Houston and Miami had no white Christmas at all in 36 years.
- This year: the strong El Niño tilts the odds toward a milder winter in many northern areas, but the real forecast comes about two weeks ahead.
In this article
What counts as a white Christmas?White Christmas odds in 10 US citiesHow do these compare with official figures?Will this winter's El Niño affect the odds?When will we know for sure?Frequently asked questionsWhat counts as a white Christmas?
In the US, a Christmas counts as white when there is at least 1 inch (2.5 cm) of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25. It doesn't have to snow on Christmas Day itself; snow that fell in the days before and stayed on the ground counts too. Snowflakes falling on Christmas Day without settling don't count.
White Christmas odds in 10 US cities
We checked the snow depth at 7 a.m. on December 25 for every year from 1990 to 2025 in 10 major cities, using the same historical weather data we use for our other city statistics.
| City | White Christmases | Chance | Avg high | Avg low |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston | 11 of 36 years | 31% | 4.0°C (39°F) | -3.9°C (25°F) |
| Chicago | 11 of 36 years | 31% | 0.5°C (33°F) | -5.1°C (23°F) |
| Philadelphia | 5 of 36 years | 14% | 6.0°C (43°F) | -1.7°C (29°F) |
| Washington, D.C. | 5 of 36 years | 14% | 6.9°C (44°F) | -1.2°C (30°F) |
| New York | 4 of 36 years | 11% | 5.3°C (42°F) | -2.3°C (28°F) |
| Seattle | 3 of 36 years | 8% | 6.2°C (43°F) | 1.5°C (35°F) |
| San Francisco | 0 of 36 years | 0% | 12.8°C (55°F) | 5.4°C (42°F) |
| Los Angeles | 0 of 36 years | 0% | 18.6°C (65°F) | 6.3°C (43°F) |
| Houston | 0 of 36 years | 0% | 15.6°C (60°F) | 6.9°C (44°F) |
| Miami | 0 of 36 years | 0% | 23.8°C (75°F) | 18.7°C (66°F) |
Source: our own calculation from Open-Meteo historical weather data (ERA5): snow depth of at least 1 inch (2.5 cm) at 7 a.m. on December 25, 1990-2025. Model values for a grid cell, not official station records.
Boston and Chicago come out on top, with snow on the ground in about 1 of every 3 Christmases. Along the I-95 corridor further south, the odds drop quickly: around 1 in 7 in Philadelphia and Washington, D.C., and about 1 in 9 in New York. Seattle had snow on the ground at Christmas in only 3 of 36 years, and in San Francisco, Los Angeles, Houston and Miami it didn't happen once.
How do these compare with official figures?
These numbers come from a weather model for an area around each city, not from a single weather station, so they can differ from official records. NOAA's official figures for the 1991-2020 period, as reported by NBC News, put New York at 13% and Chicago at 34%, close to our numbers. For Denver, NOAA gives about 34%. We left Denver out of our table, because our model gave a much higher figure than the official station record there.
Will this winter's El Niño affect the odds?
The 2026-27 winter comes with a strong to very strong El Niño. Historically, El Niño winters tend to be milder and drier across many northern parts of the US and cooler and wetter across the South, as we explain in our winter forecast. That slightly lowers the odds of a white Christmas in the North, but it says nothing about a specific week: one cold outbreak in the days before Christmas is enough.
When will we know for sure?
A forecast for Christmas Day becomes useful about two weeks ahead, so from around December 11 you can check the 14-day forecast for your city. Whether snow actually stays on the ground also depends on the days before Christmas, so keep an eye on the forecast for the whole week leading up to it.
Frequently asked questions
What are the chances of a white Christmas in 2026?
It depends on where you are. In our data for 1990-2025, Boston and Chicago had a white Christmas in about 1 of every 3 years, New York in about 11% and the South and California almost never. A real forecast is available about two weeks before Christmas.
Which US city has the best chance of a white Christmas?
Of the 10 cities in our comparison, Boston and Chicago had the best odds, with snow on the ground on about 1 in 3 Christmases. Mountain and northern-tier cities not in our table can have much higher odds.
Does New York get a white Christmas?
Rarely. In our data, New York had at least an inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning in 4 of 36 years. NOAA's official 1991-2020 figure is 13%.
What counts as a white Christmas?
At least 1 inch (2.5 cm) of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25. It doesn't need to snow on Christmas Day itself.
Check the weather in New York or search another place on the locations page.